Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Dark Side of the Technology Revolution

 
As I routinely took a glimpse of the BBC headlines before heading to bed, an interesting documentary captured my eye and kept me glued to the screen for thirty more minutes. It illustrated an interesting perspective of the negative effects of the technology revolution. An example given was the invention of the Google Self driven vehicle, which would in this next few decades lead the taxi drivers jobless. Tesla, a car manufacturer, says that fully self-driving cars will be ready for roads in just two to three years.  For now, the company has rolled out a software update that enhances cars’ autopilot and allows it to be remotely “summoned” in and out of garages without a driver.


Michael Osborne, an associate professor of machine learning at the University of Oxford, warned that the increasing use of machines in the classroom will mean that teachers will be less important when transmitting knowledge. Sounds farfetched? It’s not. Think about it. We have local scenarios where technology lead to the elimination of middle level skilled jobs. Remember how every big boss needed a secretary with the skill to write short hand, now they are no more. Looking into the future, remember how you had to queue to pay for electricity, water, driving license renewal and so on, while you can now comfortably pay for these services on your mobile devices. What will happen to the cashiers who used to attend to you, say twenty years from now?

Robots, mechanical or in software, are slowly taking on various tasks for humanity, not just the odd jobs but even the more sophisticated and complex ones. This phenomenon is known by scientists as Artificial intelligence (AI) takeover. It refers to a hypothetical scenario in which artificial intelligence (AI) becomes the dominant form of intelligence on Earth, with computers or robots effectively taking control of the planet away from the human race. Ask IBM Watson. IBM Watson is a technology platform that uses natural language processing and machine learning to reveal insights from large amounts of unstructured data. In other words, the system can analyse complex problems and compute a reasonable answers based on correlations and permutations. It is basically a brain. The IBM Watson Health cloud has a diverse range of health sources, cloud-based data sharing hub to assist doctors in diagnosis. At the least, we will need fewer doctors in future or may get rid of them in managing certain diseases and conditions. AI has gone a long in trying to create a robot that easily can learn and is self-aware enough to cast its human operators.

This marks a change in paradigm. The technology revolution is not just a threat to the repetitive tasks in a factory’s production conveyor belt; it’s a threat to every job.  The International Federation of Robotics says the number of robots in factories across the world rose by 225,000 last year, and will rise even further in the coming years. A few years back, tea farms in Kericho introduced mechanized tea harvesting methods and all workers were up in arms and the strategy had to be reverted. Well, that was a temporary measure but eventually, technology will catch as it clearly becomes more efficient to use mechanization in comparison to human labour. Advances in technology are moving too fast for most professionals to keep up. As some professions become obsolete, more knowledge may not lead to higher pay either, because everyone will be bidding for the same work, which could drive wages down. According to McKinsey Global Institute, by 2017, there will be 2 million industrial robots in operation worldwide. It has been estimated that by 2025, robots could produce an output equivalent to 40-75 million workers in both industrial and service roles. The good news is that more robots require more engineers to tend the robots. How about learning some robotics to be future proof?